Every bettor has gut feelings… but pros don’t bet guts.
Pros bet market cycles.
One of the most powerful tools inside the Raymond Report is the Sports Betting Index (SBI) — a daily snapshot showing how the betting market performed over 1-day, 3-day, and 7-day stretches. When you understand what those percentages mean, you can spot when the market is overbought, oversold, or about to flip completely in the opposite direction.
If you’ve ever wondered “When should I start looking at underdogs?” or “When are the Overs going to cool off?” — this is your playbook.
Let’s break it down sport by sport so you can read the market like a veteran.
What the SBI Really Measures
The SBI tracks historical win rates by:
- Favorites vs Underdogs
- Overs vs Unders
Over the short term, random variance can fool people. But over 7 days?
That’s where patterns form — and that’s when sharp bettors strike.
When the SBI gets too high on one side (favorites or overs), the market becomes inflated, meaning you’re paying a premium. When the SBI gets too low, the market is discounted, and value appears on the opposite side.
We call this market cycling, and it applies across every major sport — NBA, NFL, NHL, and CFB.
When to Shift from Favorites to Underdogs
If you want the short answer:
When favorites win too often, sportsbooks inflate the price, and the value shifts to underdogs.
But each sport has its own rhythm and thresholds.
NBA Market Cycles
The NBA is fast-moving and the market adjusts quickly.
Favorites run hot, then crash. Overs run wild, then dry up.
🔹 Look toward underdogs when:
7-Day SBI Favorites ≥ 70–75%
If favorites are cashing at this rate, the spreads are inflated. Grab the dogs.
🔹 Look toward favorites when:
7-Day SBI Favorites ≤ 55%
This signals an oversold market. Expect a correction.
NFL Market Cycles
The NFL has fewer games, sharper lines, and slower market swings.
🔹 Look toward underdogs when:
7-Day SBI Favorites ≥ 62–65%
🔹 Look toward favorites when:
7-Day SBI Favorites ≤ 50–52%
When the NFL gets out of balance, it doesn’t stay there long.
College Football (CFB) Market Cycles
CFB is chaos. Blowouts, mismatches, and 100+ games matter.
🔹 Look toward underdogs when:
7-Day SBI Favorites ≥ 68–72%
🔹 Look toward favorites when:
7-Day SBI Favorites ≤ 53–55%
College bettors overreact faster than NBA bettors — and that says everything.
NHL Market Cycles
The NHL is the most balanced of the four major sports.
One bounce can flip a result.
🔹 Look toward underdogs when:
7-Day SBI Favorites ≥ 60–63%
🔹 Look toward favorites when:
7-Day SBI Favorites ≤ 48–50%
Small swings matter big here.
How to Read the Totals Market (Over vs Under)
Totals behave like a thermostat.
When Overs run too hot, books crank the number up — and Unders suddenly become bargains.
Here are your ranges:
🔥 Shift to Unders When Overs Hit:
- NBA: ≥ 60–65%
- NFL: ≥ 58–62%
- NHL: ≥ 60%
- CFB: ≥ 62–68%
❄️ Shift to Overs When Overs Hit Only:
- NBA: ≤ 45%
- NFL: ≤ 44–48%
- NHL: ≤ 45%
- CFB: ≤ 48–50%
The SBI will tell you exactly when scoring trends are inflated or discounted.
Quick Reference Cheat Sheet
| Sport | Value Shifts to Dogs When Favs Hit | Value Shifts to Favs When Favs Hit Only | Value Shifts to Unders When Overs Hit | Value Shifts to Overs When Overs Hit Only |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 70–75% | ≤ 55% | ≥ 60–65% | ≤ 45% |
| NFL | 62–65% | ≤ 50–52% | ≥ 58–62% | ≤ 44–48% |
| CFB | 68–72% | ≤ 53–55% | ≥ 62–68% | ≤ 48–50% |
| NHL | 60–63% | ≤ 48–50% | ≥ 60% | ≤ 45% |
Bookmark it. Tattoo it. Tape it to your fridge.
This table alone will save you years of frustration.
The #1 Principle Behind SBI Market Shifts
You don’t bet on teams — you bet on prices.
When the price is inflated, you fade it.
When the price is discounted, you buy it.
The SBI is your early-warning radar that tells you:
- When the public is winning too much
- When the books are adjusting
- When value shifts to the opposite side
Betting is not about predicting outcomes — it’s about timing the market.
And the SBI is one of the sharpest timing tools you’ll ever use.
Final Thoughts
If you’re serious about winning long-term, stop thinking in terms of “who will win” and start thinking in terms of market cycles. When you know how to read the SBI, you’re no longer guessing — you’re trading sports like an investor, not gambling like the public.
Want more tools like this? Jump into ATS Stats and you’ll get the full Raymond Report engine that powers all our daily picks, trends, and market indicators.
The edge is real — you just need to know where to look.
