The Passion Gap (Part 2): Rivalries, Identity, and Why Fans Don’t Fall in Love with Odds

Part 1 established the problem: sports lost meaning, and betting filled the vacuum.
Now let’s talk about what still works — and why leagues, bettors, and fans are ignoring the biggest signal right in front of them.

Because despite all the noise, one thing remains undefeated:

👉 Rivalry still beats relevance.

Fans Don’t Love Games — They Love Identity

Sports was never built on volume.
It was built on belonging.

People didn’t grow up cheering for:

• Schedules
• Efficiency metrics
• Player props

They grew up cheering for:

• Cities
• Colors
• Logos
• Stories

That’s why a random midseason game doesn’t move the needle — but a rivalry does.

If you’re in Montreal, **Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs still matters, even in a bad season.

Why?

Because rivalry creates:

• Memory
• Emotion
• Conversation
• Consequences beyond the standings

You don’t need playoff implications to care.
You just need history.

Odds Create Interest — Rivalries Create Emotion

This is where modern sports culture gets confused.

Betting creates attention.
Rivalries create attachment.

One is transactional.
The other is personal.

You’ll stop watching a game once your bet dies.
You’ll never stop caring about a rival.

That difference matters — because emotion is what sustains leagues, not handle.

Why Neutral Games Are Bleeding Viewership

Let’s say it out loud:

Most neutral games are meaningless to most fans.

A Tuesday night matchup between two sub-.500 teams in markets you don’t live in doesn’t become “must-watch” because there’s a line attached to it.

It becomes:

• Background noise
• Second-screen content
• A betting sweat — not an experience

That’s not a fan problem.
That’s a product design problem.

Leagues Confused Access with Engagement

The NHL, NBA, and NFL all made the same assumption:

“If we give fans more games, they’ll watch more.”

What actually happened?

• Fans cherry-picked
• Emotional investment declined
• Betting replaced loyalty
• Attention fragmented

Too many games didn’t build fandom — it diluted it.

Rivalries Are Scarcity in Disguise

Here’s the part leagues are underusing:

Rivalries are manufactured scarcity.

You can’t replicate:

• Regional hatred
• Playoff scars
• Cultural overlap

That’s why rivalry games:

• Draw better ratings
• Attract sharper money
• Produce tighter markets
• Create emotional volatility

And emotional volatility moves lines.

The Circle of Competence Angle (Again)

This is where bettors need to stop lying to themselves.

If you’re betting:

• 12 games a night
• Teams you never watch
• Markets you don’t emotionally understand

You’re not diversified — you’re diluted.

Smart bettors don’t fall in love with odds.
They specialize in contexts.

Rivalry games:

• Break models
• Distort public perception
• Increase variance
• Create opportunity if you understand them

That’s not chaos — that’s edge.

Why the Market Behaves Differently in Rivalry Games

Rivalry games introduce variables models struggle with:

• Emotional pace changes
• Coaching aggression
• Player effort spikes
• Crowd influence

That’s why:

• Totals get mispriced
• Favorites underperform expectations
• Underdogs overachieve emotionally

This isn’t theory — it’s pattern recognition.

And it’s exactly why we preach Circle of Competence instead of betting volume at ATSStats.com.

The Warning Sign for the Future

If leagues continue treating every game as equal:

• Fans will disengage
• Betting will plateau
• Meaning will erode further

But if leagues:

• Elevate rivalry frequency
• Reduce game volume
• Introduce non-financial stakes

They rebuild identity-first engagement.

And identity is the one asset betting can’t replace.

What’s Coming in Part 3

In Part 3, we’ll tackle the hardest truth yet:

• Why fewer games would increase revenue
• Why rest matters for fans as much as players
• Why the NFL’s calendar creep is a long-term risk
• And why boredom is the most dangerous metric in sports

Part 3:
“Less Is More: Why Fewer Games Would Save Sports (and Sharpen Betting Edges)”

Because when everything is available…
Nothing feels special.

And in sports — special is the whole point.