THE RAYMOND REPORT: NBA MARKET VALUE INDEX (MVI)

Date: Friday, December 26, 2025

League: NBA

Data Provided by: ATS STATS Market Value Index (MVI)

FRIDAY NIGHT MVI MARKET REPORT

Tonight’s NBA slate is a high-stakes puzzle featuring “Boxing Day” matchups and heavy situational variables. The Market Value Index (MVI) has identified significant divergence between current market prices and projected forecasts, particularly in games impacted by star-level absences.

TOP TIER OPPORTUNITIES (MVI GRADE: A)

Boston Celtics (-8.5) @ Indiana Pacers

• MVI Outlook: BULLISH (33)

• Forecast: BOS 115.69 | IND 106.71

• Situational Context: This game is defined by massive injury voids. Both Jayson Tatum (Achilles) and Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) remain OUT.

• The Market View: Despite the missing stars, the MVI remains Bullish on Boston. The Celtics (18-11) are on a three-game win streak, while the Pacers (6-24) have plummeted, losing six straight. The 8.5-point spread reflects a talent gap that the MVI suggests the market still hasn’t fully “capped.”

Detroit Pistons (-10) @ Utah Jazz

• MVI Outlook: BULLISH (14)

• Forecast: DET 124.43 | UTA 119.59

• Situational Context: The Pistons (24-6) are the gold standard of the MVI this season. Cade Cunningham is putting up MVP-caliber numbers (26.4 PPG, 9.4 APG) and Detroit enters as a heavy double-digit road favorite.

• The Market View: Utah’s defense is the primary target here, as they allow a league-worst 127.4 PPG. Even at -10, the MVI keeps Detroit in the “Bullish” category based on their 17-12-1 ATS performance.

CONTRARIAN ALERTS & BEARISH TRENDS (MVI GRADE: B/C)

Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks (-3.5)

• MVI Outlook: BEARISH (17)

• Forecast: ATL 125.96 | MIA 123.01

• The Market View: With a massive total of 250, the MVI is waving a yellow flag. Miami is severely shorthanded with Tyler Herro (Out) and Bam Adebayo (Doubtful).

• MVI Insight: A “Bearish” grade here indicates the market may be overestimating the offensive output of a depleted Miami roster against an Atlanta team that has struggled for consistency.

Toronto Raptors (-7) @ Washington Wizards

• MVI Outlook: BEARISH (59)

• Forecast: TOR 111.65 | WAS 107.59

• The Market View: Toronto (18-13) travels to D.C. after a dominant win over Miami. Scottie Barnes is fresh off a 27-point performance, but sits as a game-time decision (Illness).

• MVI Insight: The extreme Bearish rating (59) suggests that if Barnes or other key Raptors are limited, the 7-point cushion for the struggling Wizards (5-23) might be a “trap” number.

THE HEAD-TO-HEAD MVI DASHBOARD

CRITICAL SITUATIONAL FACTORS

• Mavericks Fallout: News broke today that Anthony Davis (Groin) will miss several games for Dallas. While they aren’t on tonight’s slate, this shifts the power dynamic of the West and will impact future MVI values for their upcoming opponents.

• Memphis Monitor: Ja Morant is Questionable. The MVI’s Bearish stance on Memphis (-5.5) likely accounts for the high probability of a “heavy-lifting” night for the Grizzlies’ bench.

• Orlando’s Efficiency: With Franz Wagner (Ankle) out, the Magic’s offensive forecast (119.81) is a key metric to watch against a Charlotte team that often plays to the level of its competition.