Thunder vs. Warriors: Can Golden State Cover the Massive Spread?

Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder (20-1 SU) vs. Golden State Warriors (11-10 SU) Date: December 2, 2025 Line: Thunder -12 (O/U 221)

Tonight’s clash between the league-leading Oklahoma City Thunder and the Golden State Warriors presents one of the biggest betting spreads of the early season. The Thunder enter as substantial road favorites at -12, looking to extend their historic winning streak against a Warriors team fighting to stay above .500. We dive into the Raymond Report data to find the value on the board.

Against the Spread (ATS) Analysis: OKC -12

The primary question for bettors is whether the Thunder can cover this gargantuan spread.

The Thunder are on a historic 12-game straight-up (SU) winning streak and possess an outstanding 20-1 SU season record. Furthermore, their record as a Road Favorite is an incredible 10-1 SU, with an average winning margin of +14.73 points (PF 122.91 – PA 108.18).

However, the data presents a fascinating conflict:

• Raymond Forecast: The model projects an Oklahoma City win with a score of 117.56 – 107.68. This margin of 9.88 points falls below the -12 point spread, suggesting the Warriors are the play to cover.
• Margin Spread Value (MSV) & Cover Odds: The MSV, which indicates the perceived value of the margin, is a dominant -15.52 in favor of the Thunder, suggesting they should crush the spread. This is reinforced by a staggering 85.07% Cover Odds Win (C.O.W) metric, strongly favoring OKC to win outright.

The Thunder’s recent form supports the large margin, with the team averaging 123.43 points over their last seven games. While the GSW is a strong 8-1-0 ATS at home, the PVI rating for the Thunder is BULLISH (42 D), indicating high confidence in their performance. Given the overwhelming C.O.W. and MSV figures, the data suggests betting on the Thunder to pull away late and secure the cover, despite the tighter projection.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -12

Total Points Analysis: O/U 221

The total line is set conservatively at 221, especially considering the Thunder’s explosive offense.

The Raymond Forecast directly contradicts the current line, projecting a combined score of 225.24 points, which is 4.24 points Over the 221 total.

Several factors align with the projected Over:

• OKC Scoring Power: The Thunder are averaging a massive 122 points per game over their last 10, and they are currently on a 2-game Over streak. Their last 7 games have featured an average combined score of 231.14 points.
• Warriors’ Scoring: While Golden State has a 2-game Under streak and a NEUTRAL PVI rating, their last 3 games have seen them score 112.67 points, showing enough offensive capability to contribute to a high total.

The projection for a high-scoring Thunder win (117.56) combined with the recent offensive output makes the Over the most statistically compelling play for this contest.

Pick: Over 221

Moneyline

The Oklahoma City Thunder moneyline of -588 is not a viable betting option for straight wagers, but it reflects the near-certainty of the Thunder’s victory, which aligns with their 20-1 SU record and 12 SU Win streak. Golden State at +425 is a longshot bet with high reward, but the analytical data heavily favors the road team.

Summary of Selections

Raymond Forecast Score: Thunder 117.56, Warriors 107.68 (Total: 225.24)