The Raymond Track Report – Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Welcome back to the Raymond Track Report! Today, we attack the mid-week card at Aqueduct with a focused eye on high-percentage riders and where the Morning Line (M/L) offers us serious value. Our proprietary analysis, leveraging jockey win rates (like F. Prat’s stellar 53% and M. Franco’s rock-solid 38%) and key trainer ITM metrics, has uncovered three must-play races where you can build your bankroll.
Let’s dive into the details!
Featured Analysis: Today’s High-Confidence Picks
Race 2: Maiden Optional Claiming
The Angle: Value in a High-Octane Jockey Duel This 6-furlong sprint is a fantastic battle of high-percentage riders, but we find the best price on the top man. Our WIN pick is (6) Slay Sadie Slay (9-2), piloted by the meet’s leading rider, F. Prat (53%). At 9-2 M/L, Prat on a horse of this caliber is a gift. The main competition comes from (2) Tinseltown (5-1) with M. Franco (38%).
- Betting Strategy: We play the 6/2 Exacta box heavily, relying on the two hottest hands on the grounds to finish 1-2. Include (5) Just Tipsy (7-2) for the Trifecta slot.
| Pick Order | # | Horse Name | M/L Odds | Jockey (% Win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (6) | Slay Sadie Slay | 9-2 | F Prat (53%) |
| PLACE | (2) | Tinseltown | 5-1 | M Franco (38%) |
| SHOW | (5) | Just Tipsy | 7-2 | J Lezcano (26%) |
Race 3: Claiming
The Angle: Banking on a Franco Longshot Bounce This is a classic claiming spot where the Raymond Report shines by finding value. We are selecting (6) Cloudy Chance (6-1) for the win. Getting M. Franco (38%) on a 6-1 shot in a field this shallow screams value. Our Place pick, (1) Mia Nipotina (8-1), has R. Gutierrez (37%) aboard and is a must-use for the Exacta. Fade the shorter-priced chalk here.
- Betting Strategy: Focus on the 6/1 Exacta box and play the 6/1/3 Trifecta box. This is an excellent opportunity for a double-digit Exacta payoff.
| Pick Order | # | Horse Name | M/L Odds | Jockey (% Win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (6) | Cloudy Chance | 6-1 | M Franco (38%) |
| PLACE | (1) | Mia Nipotina | 8-1 | R Gutierrez (37%) |
| SHOW | (3) | Casilda | 9-2 | R Silvera (35%) |
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming
The Angle: The Late Pick 4 Anchor Race 7 is the lynchpin for the late exotics. We have twin 3-1 choices, but we side with the stronger rider: (7) Tall Paul (3-1), with F. Prat (53%). Prat is deadly in Allowance races. We must respect the co-favorite, (4) What’s Up Bro (3-1) with M. Franco, for the Place spot. This Exacta is essential. The favorite for the show, (3) Yo Banana Boy, rounds out a tight core three.
- Betting Strategy: This is a race to bet the 7/4 Exacta box and the 7/4/3 Trifecta box. Key the (7) Tall Paul in the first leg of your late Pick 3 or Pick 4 wagers.
| Pick Order | # | Horse Name | M/L Odds | Jockey (% Win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (7) | Tall Paul | 3-1 | F Prat (53%) |
| PLACE | (4) | What’s Up Bro | 3-1 | M Franco (38%) |
| SHOW | (3) | Yo Banana Boy | 2-1 | R Santana, Jr. (27%) |
The Fast Track: Quick-Pick Playbook
| Race | Race Type & Distance | Raymond Report WIN Pick (M/L) | Key Exotic Wager |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Allowance (7F Dirt) | (4) Kay Cup (4-5) | Box 4/6/5. Prat’s win here is crucial to our overall multi-race strategy. |
| R4 | Claiming (7F Dirt) | (7) Celestial Glaze (5-2) | Box 7/2 Exacta. Prat’s (53%) presence demands respect over Franco’s (2) Exploration. |
| R5 | Maiden Claiming (6.5F Dirt) | (4) Nordic Fyre (8-1) | HUGE VALUE PLAY! Box 4/8 Exacta. We are trying to upset the chalk with Silvera (35%) at big odds. |
| R6 | Claiming (1M Dirt) | (4) Bold Victory (2-1) | Box 4/1 Exacta. Franco’s horse is the clear class; anchor your mid-day Pick 3 around the 4. |
| R8 | Claiming (6F Dirt) | (3) Doomed (6-1) | Box 3/7 Exacta. Franco (38%) on a 6-1 shot in the last is a great way to close out the day with a price. |
Your Winning Ticket: Exotic Wager of the Day
LATE PICK 4 (Races 5-8)
The structure of the late Pick 4 gives us a chance to maximize value with our longshot picks in the middle.
- Leg 1 (R5): 4, 8, 1 (Longshot coverage)
- Leg 2 (R6): 4 (Single: Bold Victory with Franco)
- Leg 3 (R7): 7, 4, 3 (The three top chalk)
- Leg 4 (R8): 3, 7 (Franco and Silvera Exacta box)
Total Bet: (3 x 1 x 3 x 2) = 18 combinations
Good luck, and may your percentages run high!
