⭐ ATS STATS – Team Grading Report

Winnipeg Jets ($WIN) — Market Grade: B | Market Sentiment: BEARISH (4 Days)

🏒 Team Overview

Record: 13–13–0
O/U Record: 14–12–0
Current Streak: 2 SU Losses
Last 7 Games: 1–6
DMVI: –184
Confidence Index: 14%
Market Sentiment: BEARISH (4 Days)
Current Game: @ Buffalo Sabres (-132 / 7)
Next Game: @ Edmonton

Winnipeg is a freefalling B-type asset — still graded as mid-tier by the market, but performing like a bottom-feeder. A 1–6 slide in their last seven combined with a brutal DMVI of –184 tells you the books are consistently overvaluing them. This is not mispricing — this is a team playing far below expectation.

The Jets are in the danger zone: bookmakers still see them as “competitive,” but the performance charts show a team that’s bleeding value every time they lace their skates.

📊 1. Market Value Index Breakdown

DMVI: –184
This is ugly — not inflated like Buffalo, but deeply undervalued due to poor performance.

What a DMVI this negative means:

The market expected far more from this roster
Oddsmakers continue to hang B-grade pricing
Winnipeg is failing to meet even baseline expectations
They are untrustworthy in most markets due to volatility and collapse patterns

This is a Sell signal, not a Buy. The Jets need a structural turnaround, not a tweak.

Confidence Index: 14%
That’s as low as it gets. The model has nearly no trust in Winnipeg’s ability to outperform their price tonight.

🔍 2. PVI–SOS System Trends (ATS STATS Exclusive)

Team-Specific Trend

Winnipeg at home vs C-team off a loss:
No meaningful sample — trend defaults to league behavior.

League-Level Trend

When ANY B-type home team faces a C-type opponent off a SU loss:

SU: 20–16
ATS: 17–19
O/U: 20–16

This trend leans toward moderate success, but the Jets’ current form makes them an outlier — they’re the exception, not the rule.

🧱 3. Situational Identity Breakdown

Role	Record	GF	GA	Interpretation
Home Favorite	6–4	3.4	2.7	Only stable role
Home Underdog	0–1	3	4	Not a fit
Road Favorite	7–4	3.36	2.73	Surprisingly strong
Road Underdog	0–4	1.25	4.25	Their worst role (avoid completely)

Key Takeaway: Winnipeg is only reliable when the market expects them to win — every underdog scenario exposes their weaknesses.

🔥 4. Performance Trend Breakdown

Span	GF	GA	Read
Last 3	2.67	3.33	Slight uptick, still negative
Last 5	2.4	3.8	Offense collapsing
Last 7	2.14	3.71	Worst stretch of the season
Last 10	2.7	3.6	Below-average
Last 15	2.6	3.33	Trend holds: struggling

Winnipeg is producing relegation-level offense during this slump. The defense isn’t bailing them out either.

🧠 5. System Trend Gold (Membership-Level Angles)

Some strong long-term team tendencies:

21–5 SU as home favorite with total of 6.5 (last 2 years)
8–2 O/U at home, after scoring 2 or fewer and allowing 3+
14–2 SU as home fave with a 1–2 SU record entering the game
10–1 SU when playing at home on Friday (last 2 years)

These are powerful angles — but today’s matchup is on the road, meaning none of these home-dominant trends apply.

📘 6. Season Log Highlights

The Jets’ log shows a classic B-team implosion:

Started the season hot
Now stuck in a multi-week regression
Lost several games in spots they historically dominate
Inconsistent goalie play
Offense running cold: 2.14 GF in last 7

They appear tired, predictable, and slow — the opposite of how Winnipeg wins.

⭐ 7. Betting Value Assessment

Value Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ (Sell / Avoid)

Best Uses for Winnipeg:

Fade them as road underdogs
Monitor for bounce-back spots at home
Situational Overs when facing run-and-gun teams
Look for regression-to-mean plays once losing streak breaks

Right now, they are a Sell across all markets except rare home-chalk roles.

📝 8. Final Report Card

Category	Grade	Notes
Market Grade	B	Legacy value, not performance value
Cycle Strength	D	One of the coldest teams in NHL
DMVI	F	Deep negative — major underperformance
Situational Edges	C	Some home angles, no road value
PVI–SOS Strength	C	League trend OK, team performance bad
Betting Value	D	Playable only in contrarian rebound spots