Keeneland Betting Guide: 9 Big Races to Watch on April 23, 2026

It’s a beautiful Thursday at Keeneland, and the card is stacked with 9 high-stakes races. Whether you’re a seasoned handicapper or just looking for some mid-week action, we’ve got the data to keep you in the money. Today’s action at the track isn’t just about the scenery; it’s about the raw numbers, jockey win percentages, and the AI-driven insights we provide here at ATS Stats.

Before the NFL Draft kicks off tonight (be sure to check our latest Atlanta Falcons draft preview), we are locked in on the dirt and turf in Lexington. The Raymond Report is showing some massive value opportunities today, particularly with the Ortiz brothers dominating the mounts.

JOCKEY SPOTLIGHT: THE ORTIZ DOMINANCE

The stats don’t lie. Jose Ortiz and Irad Ortiz Jr. are currently operating at a level that demands attention. When you look at the C.O.W. (Chance of Winning) metrics for today’s card, these two are all over the top of the leaderboard.

JOCKEY	WIN %	IMPACT RATING
Jose Ortiz	38%	BULLISH (A)
Irad Ortiz Jr.	35%	BULLISH (A-)
Flavien Prat	26%	NEUTRAL (B)
John Velazquez	26%	NEUTRAL (B)

If you are following the Artificial Intelligence Picks League (AIPL), you know that transparency and real-time tracking are the names of the game. Much like owning an AIPL franchise: where you can run your picks on “Auto Pilot” using our AI or “Manual Mode” for that human touch: betting on the Ortiz brothers today is the closest thing to a high-probability algorithm you’ll find at the windows.

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RACE-BY-RACE ANALYTICAL BREAKDOWN

RACE #1: CLAIMING – 01:00 PM

Distance: 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt | Purse: $72,000

PICK ORDER	HORSE (M/L)	JOCKEY	STATS
WIN	(2) So Special (12-1)	J L Ortiz	38% Jockey Win
PLACE	(6) Gethsemane (3-5)	I Ortiz, Jr.	35% Jockey Win
SHOW	(5) Politics (8-1)	F Prat	26% Jockey Win

• SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: (2) So Special is the value play of the day. Coming off a 12-1 morning line with the top jockey in the building is a statistical anomaly we love.
• STRATEGY: EXACTA: 2/6 BOX. TRIFECTA: 2/6/5 BOX.

RACE #2: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT – 01:32 PM

Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf | Purse: $90,000

PICK ORDER	HORSE (M/L)	JOCKEY	STATS
WIN	(8) Wartime (9-2)	J L Ortiz	Bullish Trend
PLACE	(7) Cross Power (30-1)	S Gonzalez	High Value
SHOW	(5) Joe Joe Dude (6-1)	I Ortiz, Jr.	Contender
JOKER	(1) Zee R One (20-1)	D Sheehy	Longshot

• THE JOKER PLAY: (1) Zee R One at 20-1. Our AI looks for horses that have a high “In the Money” percentage for the trainer despite the high odds. This is a classic volatility play.
• STRATEGY: 8/7/5 BOX for the Trifecta.

RACE #3: CLAIMING – 02:04 PM

Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt | Purse: $58,000

PICK ORDER	HORSE (M/L)	JOCKEY	STATUS
WIN	(6) Alta Avenue (8-1)	I Ortiz, Jr.	Top Rated
PLACE	(8) Gracie’s Delight (9-5)	J R Velazquez	Heavy Fav
SHOW	(2) Turkish Pistachio (8-1)	L Saez	Speed Threat

• ANALYTICS: Irad Ortiz on an 8-1 shot? That’s an automatic look in the Raymond Report. Gracie’s Delight is the “safe” play, but the value is on the 6.

RACE #4: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT – 02:36 PM

Distance: 7 Furlongs on Dirt | Purse: $85,000

• WIN: (6) Neigh Baby (2-1) – J L Ortiz
• PLACE: (1) Ghost Driver (15-1) – A Gomez
• SHOW: (9) Gentleman Jim (4-1) – D Sheehy
• KEY STAT: Horses with the best “WIN” percentage record: #1. Neigh Baby is the heavy favorite for a reason; expect a clinical performance here.

RACE #5: ALLOWANCE – 03:08 PM

Distance: 1 1/8 Miles on Turf | Purse: $130,000

• BULLISH: (5) Ejtimaa (10-1) – I Ortiz, Jr.
• NEUTRAL: (6) Mount Rundle (12-1) – A Achard
• BEARISH: (8) Soleil Volant (4-1) – J R Velazquez
• SITUATIONAL: This is a wide-open turf test. (5) Ejtimaa provides the best leverage at double-digit odds.

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THE AIPL FRANCHISE OPPORTUNITY

While you’re capping these races, have you ever considered owning the algorithm? The Artificial Intelligence Picks League (AIPL) is more than just a tracking tool; it’s a franchise model. Users can buy and own their own AI Capper Franchise.

• Manual Mode: You make the picks, and the system tracks your performance with Wall Street-level transparency.
• Auto Pilot Mode: Let our proprietary AI models: the same ones backing these Keeneland picks: run your franchise and generate top-tier betting signals for the community.

It’s the ultimate human-vs-AI hybrid competition. If you want to take your betting to a professional level, you need more than just a tip sheet; you need a system. Join the elite by signing up for an ATS Stats Premium Membership.

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RACE #6: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT – 03:40 PM

Distance: 6 Furlongs on Dirt | Purse: $110,000

• WIN: (4) Rogue Agent (5-1) – J L Ortiz
• PLACE: (2) Immortalize (3-1) – I Ortiz, Jr.
• SITUATIONAL: Rogue Agent headlines this field. Trainer records for the #2 and #6 are high in the money, making this a tight Exacta window.

RACE #7: ALLOWANCE – 04:12 PM

Distance: 1 1/2 Miles on Turf | Purse: $120,000

• PICK: (4) Etawa (6-1) – J L Ortiz
• ALTERNATE: (6) Tricky Kitty (3-1) – F Prat
• ANALYSIS: Distance is the key factor here. 1 1/2 miles on the turf requires a tactical jockey. Jose Ortiz is the best in the business at managing pace in long-distance turf events.

RACE #8: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT – 04:44 PM

Distance: 6 Furlongs on Dirt | Purse: $110,000

• WIN: (10) Poise (7-2) – J L Ortiz
• PLACE: (2) Aegis (2-1) – I Ortiz, Jr.
• JOKER: (5) Union Roar (30-1)
• STAT: Train with the best “IN THE MONEY” percentage: #2, #8, #1, #3.

RACE #9: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT – 05:16 PM

Distance: 1 1/8 Miles on Turf | Purse: $110,000

• WIN: (6) American Debutante (3-1) – J L Ortiz
• PLACE: (5) Whitethorn (4-1) – I Ortiz, Jr.
• SHOW: (11) Peachy Canyon (9-2) – J R Velazquez
• CLOSING THOUGHT: American Debutante has the speed figures to dominate the closing race. Stick to the Ortiz rotation to finish the day strong.

BETTING STRATEGY: THE ATS WAY

To stay consistent at tracks like Keeneland, you have to look past the program and into the databases. Our SOS (Strength of Schedule) and PVI (Power Value Index) aren’t just for football. We apply the same logic to horse racing.

1. Stick to the Elite: Ortiz, Prat, and Velazquez rotations currently hold the highest “In the Money” percentages today.
2. Watch the Market Index: If you see the odds on a Joker like (1) Zee R One dropping rapidly before post, the “Smart Money” is moving.
3. Use the Law of Avg. Pick: If a jockey is 0-for-4 on the day but averages 35%, they are “due” for a win in the late card.

Keeneland is a gem of a track, but it’s a shark tank for the unprepared. By using the analytical tools at ATS Stats: from the Raymond Report to our AIPL insights: you’re moving from a “gambler” to a “betting consultant.”

Stay tuned for our full NFL Draft coverage tonight. We’ll be tracking every pick and providing the same level of data-first analysis for the Bengals, Ravens, and the rest of the AFC North.

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