RAYMOND REPORT: MLB STARTING PITCHERS BETTING TOTALS PERCEPTION – Two of the top money line baseball pitchers will be toeing the rubber this Thursday when the Yankees travel to Washington to face the defending champion Nationals and the Dodgers hosting the Giants.
In sports handicapping, there is something we call “Fools Gold” and easy it is to get caught up in the (Perception vs. Reality) game the bookmaker like to play with their shady numbers against the betting public.
Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees will be facing Max Scherzer of the Washington Nationals, while Clayton Kershaw of the Yankees will square off against Johnny Cueto of the San Francisco Giants.
Thursday, July 23rd, 2020 – MLB Lines
Odds courtesy of Bookmaker Sportsbook
07/23 – 19:08
- New York Yankees (G Cole – R) PK-141 (7.5 -105)
- Washington Nationals (M. Scherzer – R) PK+127 (7.5 -115)
07/23 – 22:08
- San Francisco Giants (Cueto – R) PK+255 (8.0 -110)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw – L) PK-290 (8.0 -110)
RAYMOND REPORT: MLB STARTING PITCHERS BETTING TOTALS PERCEPTION
Opening day, means each baseball teams normally sends out their top ace to the mound to start the season and there is a perception with each team’s ace comes exceptionally low totals.
Bookmaker know this and will normally favor the higher profile “public” pitchers like Kershaw, Cole and Scherzer who will generally garner totals of 7.5 or lower.
The betting public will normally have a preconceived perception when teams send their number one pitcher and there is a tendency to lean with the favorites and the under in those games.
However, as you can see from my research of Kershaw and Scherzer below, both aces have their strength and weakness.
Clayton Kershaw of the L.A. Dodgers tends to be dominant at home or away when the total is between 6.0 to 8.0 but is only (3-7 SU) on the road when the total is 7.5 in his last 10 starts. However, owns an impressive combined record of (24-6 SU) at home and away when the total is 6.0 to 7.0.
As for Scherzer of the Nats, he tends to struggle as at home vs. other team’s top aces, he’s (7-12 SU) when the total is between 6.0 to 7.0, but (8-2 SU) at home when the over/under is 7.5.
If you are looking for a “ace advantage”, it seems you want to play on both of these pitchers when they are away from home when the over/under is set at 6.5 or 7.0, as they are a combined (29-10 SU) in this spot and 16-4 SU when the total is 9.0.
FOOLS GOLD OR MARKET VALUE
In my view, whenever you have two aces going head to head like Clayton and Kershaw, I think there’s better value in betting the total, as you can see from the record above, it could be hit or miss trying to bet the side on an over valued price on a pitcher like Scherzer.
Shop for Value and Play the Percentages.