Saratoga Racing Insights: Top Picks and Analysis Using Our Horse Power Points System

Explanation of the Point System

In this analysis, we’ve employed a Horse Power Points System to evaluate and rank the horses across today’s races at Saratoga. This system considers the following factors:

Odds Points: We convert Morning Line (M/L) odds into points by taking the inverse of the odds, multiplied by 100. This rewards horses with lower odds, indicating higher chances of winning.
Jockey Points: Each horse’s jockey contributes points based on their win percentage. We multiply the jockey’s win percentage by 100 to calculate these points, rewarding horses ridden by more successful jockeys.
Morning Line Odds: The M/L odds are also used directly in the scoring to reflect a horse’s chance of winning as perceived by experts.

The total points for each horse are calculated by summing these factors, giving bettors a clear picture of each horse’s strengths and helping identify the best betting opportunities.

Saratoga Horse Racing Analysis

Race 1 – Stakes

Pick Order	M/L	Horse Number	Horse Name	Jockey	Jockey %	Odds Points	Jockey Points	M/L Points	Total Points
WIN	8-1	(5)	Tuddenham Green	G Watters	4%	12.5	4	8	24.5
PLACE	5-1	(1)	Hold Hard	B Dalton	3%	20	3	5	28
SHOW	10-1	(6)	Walk The Warrior	J Bargary	2%	10	2	10	22
JOKER	12-1	(8)	Hidden Path	P Hendriks	3%	8.33	3	12	23.33

Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight

Pick Order	M/L	Horse Number	Horse Name	Jockey	Jockey %	Odds Points	Jockey Points	M/L Points	Total Points
WIN	8-5	(8)	Will Not Be Swayed	F Prat	30%	62.5	30	1.6	94.1
PLACE	6-1	(6)	Royal Princess	M Franco	28%	16.67	28	6	50.67
SHOW	12-1	(1)	Bossy Dish	I Ortiz, Jr.	24%	8.33	24	12	44.33
JOKER	4-1	(7)	Tiz Purple	T Gaffalione	24%	25	24	4	53

Race 3 – Starter Allowance

Pick Order	M/L	Horse Number	Horse Name	Jockey	Jockey %	Odds Points	Jockey Points	M/L Points	Total Points
WIN	8-1	(6)	Principe d’Oro	F Prat	30%	12.5	30	8	50.5
PLACE	6-1	(3)	Dillinger	M Franco	28%	16.67	28	6	50.67
SHOW	7-2	(4)	Rider’s Special	K Carmouche	28%	28.57	28	3.5	60.07
JOKER	10-1	(8)	Mr. Papagiorgio	I Ortiz, Jr.	24%	10	24	10	44

Race 4 – Allowance

Pick Order	M/L	Horse Number	Horse Name	Jockey	Jockey %	Odds Points	Jockey Points	M/L Points	Total Points
WIN	8-1	(2)	Victors Valiant	F Prat	30%	12.5	30	8	50.5
PLACE	5-2	(9)	Fromanothamutha	M Franco	28%	40	28	2.5	70.5
SHOW	6-5	(5)	Unit Economics	I Ortiz, Jr.	24%	62.5	24	1.2	87.7
JOKER	8-5	(10)	Classic Legacy	J Alvarado	24%	62.5	24	1.6	88.1

Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming

Pick Order	M/L	Horse Number	Horse Name	Jockey	Jockey %	Odds Points	Jockey Points	M/L Points	Total Points
WIN	5-1	(1)	Sunday Shoes	F Prat	30%	20	30	5	55
PLACE	10-1	(4)	L Street Lady	M Franco	28%	10	28	10	48
SHOW	6-1	(6)	Speedy Traveler	J A Torres	26%	16.67	26	6	48.67
JOKER	3-1	(7)	Hollywood Walk	I Ortiz, Jr.	24%	33.33	24	3	60.33

Race 6 – Claiming

Pick Order	M/L	Horse Number	Horse Name	Jockey	Jockey %	Odds Points	Jockey Points	M/L Points	Total Points
WIN	6-1	(2)	Rainingatthebeach	F Prat	30%	16.67	30	6	52.67
PLACE	4-1	(8)	Grammy Girl	M Franco	28%	25	28	4	57
SHOW	5-1	(7)	Bump in the Night	I Ortiz, Jr.	24%	20	24	5	49
JOKER	6-1	(1)	Moonlit Weekend	J L Ortiz	24%	16.67	24	6	46.67

Race 7 – Claiming

Pick Order	M/L	Horse Number	Horse Name	Jockey	Jockey %	Odds Points	Jockey Points	M/L Points	Total Points
WIN	10-1	(4)	Stormquist	M Franco	28%	10	28	10	48
PLACE	6-1	(3)	On the Ledge	K Carmouche	28%	16.67	28	6	50.67
SHOW	3-1	(11)	Neuschwanstein	I Ortiz, Jr.	24%	33.33	24	3	60.33
JOKER	8-1	(8)	Unclecharliesgift	T Gaffalione	24%	12.5	24	8	44.5

Race 8 – Stakes

Pick Order	M/L	Horse Number	Horse Name	Jockey	Jockey %	Odds Points	Jockey Points	M/L Points	Total Points
WIN	7-2	(3)	Smokin’ Hot Kitty	K Carmouche	28%	28.57	28	3.5	60.07
PLACE	8-1	(5)	Bustin Bay	I Ortiz, Jr.	24%

| 12.5 | 24 | 8 | 44.5 |
| SHOW | 7-5 | (2) | Sterling Silver | J Alvarado | 24% | 62.5 | 24 | 1.4 | 87.9 |
| JOKER | 15-1 | (1) | Sunset Louise | J L Ortiz | 24% | 6.67 | 24 | 15 | 45.67 |

Race 9 – Maiden Claiming

Pick Order	M/L	Horse Number	Horse Name	Jockey	Jockey %	Odds Points	Jockey Points	M/L Points	Total Points
WIN	15-1	(9)	Zen Air	M Franco	28%	6.67	28	15	49.67
PLACE	1-1	(1A)	Adventurous Spirit	I Ortiz, Jr.	24%	100	24	1	125
SHOW	4-1	(6)	Riverwalk	T Gaffalione	24%	25	24	4	53
JOKER	1-1	(1)	Steadfast Resolve	J L Ortiz	24%	100	24	1	125

Top 10 Picks Across All Races

Here are the top 10 picks based on total points from all races at Saratoga today:

(1A) Adventurous Spirit – Race 9: 125 points
(1) Steadfast Resolve – Race 9: 125 points
(8) Will Not Be Swayed – Race 2: 94.1 points
(10) Classic Legacy – Race 4: 88.1 points
(5) Unit Economics – Race 4: 87.7 points
(2) Sterling Silver – Race 8: 87.9 points
(9) Fromanothamutha – Race 4: 70.5 points
(4) Rider’s Special – Race 3: 60.07 points
(3) Smokin’ Hot Kitty – Race 8: 60.07 points
(7) Hollywood Walk – Race 5: 60.33 points

These horses represent the best betting opportunities today at Saratoga, according to the analysis of odds and jockey performance. Good luck with your bets!

Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a veteran sports handicapper and founder of ATSstats.com, creator of the Raymond Report sports betting system. Active in the industry since 1996, Ron has nearly three decades of experience analyzing market cycles, performance indicators, and value metrics across the NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, and CFL. Ron’s data-driven approach has helped thousands of bettors think strategically, manage risk, and win with confidence.

See Full Bio