SPORTS HANDICAPPER RON RAYMOND’S TOP 10 SPORTS BETTING SECRETS- In 2009, I wrote “Ron Raymond’s 50 Greatest Sports Betting Secrets” and I thought it would be a good idea to review some of those top sports betting tips and release a Coles Note version of the book and revisit 10 of my top sports betting tips.
Now that I am heading into my 24th season of sports handicapping, if there is one thing I have realized during the grind, sports betting has a lot to do with luck and playing the percentages.
If you have watched any of my videos on YouTube or the ATS STATS website, you have noticed I have always signed off with the following tagline: “Shop for Value and Play the Percentage”.
Parity in pro sports has never been tighter and when it comes to the point spread numbers in college sports, it has a lot to do with some of the top program’s top players and how many scholarships each institution can offer “Division 1” athletes.
In College sports, you hear it all the time from some of the best coaches, were only as good as our top players and in my own opinion, players win championship, along with some experienced guidance from top level coaching.
However, when it comes to handicapping professional sports, you really need tools which gives you indicators to the percentage play and compliment it with situational handicapping circumstances.
PERCEPTION VS. REALITY
Another sports betting angle which doesn’t get much attention is “Perception vs. Reality”. Before any game, there is always a public perception of the outcome of a game and the bookmakers know this and will use this perception vs. the reality to get an edge.
Additionally, teams go through different performance cycles when it comes to sports betting and bookmakers will use these “performance cycles” to manipulate the line and use market confidence to their advantage.
In the Raymond Report system, I have what is called the “PVC”, which stands for the Performance Value Cycle, which monitors the following: Bullish, Neutral and Bearish cycles.
- Bullish Cycle =Team is either (7-0, 6-1, or 5-2) Last 7 games.
- Neutral Cycle =Team is either (3-4 or 4-3) Last 7 games.
- Bearish Cycle =Team is either (0-7, 1-6 or 2-5) Last 7 games.
WHAT TYPE OF TEAMS ARE THEY?
Also, when you look at league standings, I believe there’s 3 types of teams.
- Tier 1 Teams (TYPE A): 60% or higher (Above Average Teams = High Public Confidence = Low Rewards)
- Tier 2 Teams (TYPE B): 50% to 59.9% (Average Teams = Moderate Public Confidence = Medium Rewards)
- Tier 3 Teams (TYPE C): 49.9% or Lower (Below Average Teams = Low Public Confidence = High Rewards)
SPORTS HANDICAPPER RON RAYMOND’S TOP 10 SPORTS BETTING SECRETS
- Law of Average Handicapping: Parity has really set the tone in sports over the last 20 plus seasons. In fact, except for baseball, nearly every league has a salary cap, so you are basically handicapping a coin flip. Now that everyone has easy access to information via the internet, gathering information on teams and players has never been easier and nothing is a secret anymore. One theory I like to use towards my decision-making process is the “Law of Average System”. What you do is look for a team coming off an “ATS Win vs. a team coming off an ATS Lost”. The percentages are in your favor when you are betting on a team coming off an ATS lost.
- First Game on the Las Vegas Schedule: Every week, the Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks release their official NFL and College football (CFB) odds schedules. Keep an eye on the first game at the top of the NFL and College Football schedule; this is usually the “Sucker Line of the Week” game. The sportsbooks review the games going on that week and try to find the easiest game to trap the public. Then, they set their “Trap” lines, knowing Joe Public will hammer that team. Again, you need to have a sharp eye as the “Trap” line could be the total!
- Letdown Factor: What is a letdown factor? It is when a “mid to big” underdog team gives a big old fashion “ass-whooping” to a popular big-name team or school. Bet against this team the following week. The “Letdown Factor” is best used in college sports because the pros have been in this spot many times before. The Pros know what to expect the following week from a team that got embarrassed. However, when a small-town school just pulled a huge upset, they become the talk of the town for that week, they normally get on ESPN and are not used to the limelight. The following week they are normally distracted during practice and when the next game rolls around, they find it hard to meet the same intensity. They are primed for a classic letdown. Bet against teams in a letdown spot.
- Mano-a-mano Under Pitching Matchup: According to Wikipedia, Mano-a-mano is a Spanish and Italian construction meaning “hand to hand”. It was originally used in bullfights where two matadors alternated in competing for the audience’s admiration. In baseball, whenever you have two Latino or South American pitchers going head to head, always remember that they will want to out duel their fellow countryman. For example: when you have two pitchers from a small town in Dominican Republic going head to head, don’t you think the local newspaper will make a big media splash about the showdown? Thus, the two pitchers will take great pride in this game and pitch their hearts out! Plus, there is a good chance the game will go UNDER the total.
- Bet against Home Teams off a Long Road Trip: Here is one of those biorhythms type go-against plays, where you want to take advantage of a team’s “body clock” fatigue. If you have a team on a West or East coast road trip of 5 games or more, there’s a good chance that team will be away from home for 8 or more days. Once back home, they take care of family responsibilities; they are normally out of their daily home day routine and fatigue sets in, especially if they are coming off a couple of different time zones. Consider this tip for betting on baseball, hockey, and basketball.
- Get Away Day in Baseball (Afternoon Game): Here is what you are looking for on a get away day in baseball. Look for a road team in their last game of a series who is finally heading home after a long road trip, especially if they won 2 of the 3 or 3 of the 4 first games of a series. Play the UNDER in this situation or against the home team that lost every game in the series. Typically, when a team has been on the road and it is either a Monday or Wednesday afternoon game, they tend to play quickly to get back home. Sometimes, they will also have a quick plane to catch and the last thing they want is extra innings.
- Ron’s Rule of Thumb of Parlay Betting: If you’re a parlay type bettor that likes to bet the total and side of a game, here’s a piece of advice. If you bet on the Favorite, take the OVER. If you like the UNDERDOG, take the UNDER. The logic behind this theory is simple. For example: when a team is favored by 7-points or more with an OVER of 44.5, all you need is for the underdog to get up ahead or stay in the game if they can. Because the favorite is more likely to catch up and put up some points on the board, the percentage is good to cover the over. As for the dog, if they can keep the favorite off the board, the percentage of the UNDER and dog covering is on your side.
- Look ahead Factor: This type of situational handicapping strategy is best used betting on college football or basketball. In college sports, especially in the SEC, PAC 10 and the BIG 10, you have some major rivals, such as Florida vs. Florida State and Michigan vs. Ohio State. Bet against teams who have a MAJOR RIVAL GAME ON DECK on deck. For example, when Michigan is playing the Buffalo Bulls in Week 10 and they have Ohio State in Week 11, depending on each team’s situation, bet against Michigan and Ohio State in this spot. However, make sure both teams are having good seasons.
- After 3 Straight Covers, The Secret is out: Sports betting is all about playing the percentages. When a College Football team has covered the spread in their last 3 games, the secret is out of the bag and people are noticing! In fact, once a team covers the spread in their last 3 games, not only are sharp bettors on to this, but worst, the bookmakers are trying to jack up the line; the value is completely gone. Basically, they are trying to discourage you to make it 4 ATS covers and the chances of that team covering the spread are not in your favor this time around. Tip: Here’s a College Football Road System to bet against: when ANY College Football team plays as a Road team as a Favorite and is coming off 3 ATS win, the Road Favorite is 82-108-0 (43%) ATS since 1997.
- Daytona’s Baseball Slaughter Plays: Back in the day when I had my sports betting forum up, we had a sports bettor from New Jersey name Daytona who use to keep track of what was known as his “Slaughter plays”. In this system, watch out for home teams who have won by 7 points or more. Play them in the following game. The system is based on playing a team who’s in an offensive hitting zone. In fact, I ran this system on my database and realized that the Yankees are hitting 74%. During the last 5 years, when the NY YANKEES play as a home team and have won the last game by 7 runs or more, they are 40-14 SU in the next game.
BONUS HORSE RACING TIP
Double Dutching: One of my favorite ways to bet on horses is called “Double Dutching”. What you want to do is pick your favorite horse in a race and bet it to “WIN & PLACE”. This way, if your horse doesn’t win, at least you can recover some of your money if he comes in second. In fact, if you play a medium to heavy longshot, a horse who comes into second place, can pay more then any of the favorites who comes in first.