The Sports Betting Index (SBI): Are NBA Favorites or NHL Underdogs Winning the Market?

DATE: Thursday, March 19, 2026
REPORT TYPE: Macro Market Analysis
SOURCE: ATS Stats / Raymond Report SBI
INDICATORS: SU, ATS, O/U, SBI Rating

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: THE SPORTS BETTING INDEX (SBI)

The Sports Betting Index (SBI) serves as the primary technical indicator for market health within the sports betting industry. Similar to how the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 tracks the performance of the stock market, the SBI tracks the performance of favorites, underdogs, and totals across major professional leagues.

Understanding the SBI is fundamental to the Raymond Report Sports Betting System. It identifies whether the market is currently in a Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish cycle. In sports betting, a "Bullish" market for favorites indicates that chalk is winning and covering at a high rate, while a "Bearish" market signals that underdogs are the dominant force.

SBI RATING LEGEND:

• BULLISH: 57.2% – 100% (High Confidence in Favorites/Overs)
• NEUTRAL: 42.8% – 57.1% (Market Equilibrium)
• BEARISH: 0% – 42.7% (High Confidence in Underdogs/Unders)

NBA MARKET ANALYSIS: EXTREME BULLISH MOMENTUM

The current NBA market is exhibiting strong Bullish characteristics. Favorites are not only winning Straight Up (SU) but are also covering the point spread (ATS) at rates significantly higher than the seasonal average. This "Favorites-Dominant" environment suggests that market pricing has yet to catch up to the efficiency of top-tier NBA rosters.

NBA SBI DATA TABLE (CURRENT)

NBA TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

• SU FAV PERFORMANCE (Short-Term): The 3-day window shows an extreme spike at 88.7%. This indicates a market where favorites are essentially unbeatable in the short term. Following free NBA stats during this window would have yielded high success for MoneyLine parlay strategies.
• ATS TRENDS: While the YTD ATS is Neutral (49.2%), the 1-day (67%) and 3-day (64.3%) metrics show a massive shift toward favorites covering. The market is currently lagging behind the "blowout" trend.
• TOTALS (O/U): The 1D "Over" rate of 67% indicates high-scoring outputs or soft lines. However, the YTD metric of 49.9% suggests the NBA totals market remains the most efficient segment of the index, hovering near perfect equilibrium.

NHL MARKET ANALYSIS: THE UNDERDOG REVOLT

In stark contrast to the NBA, the NHL market is currently in a state of Bearish volatility for favorites. Underdogs are not only covering the Puck Line (+1.5) but are winning games outright at an alarming rate for bookmakers. For bettors, this identifies a "Value Market" for dogs.

NHL SBI DATA TABLE (CURRENT)

NHL TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

• SU DOG DOMINANCE: In the last 24 hours, underdogs won 67% of games SU. Over the last 7 days, they won 63.6%. This is a severe Bearish rating for favorites, indicating that the "Alphabet Teams" (top-tier favorites) are underperforming or resting for the playoffs.
• ATS (PUCK LINE) DISPARITY: The most significant data point in the NHL betting trends is the YTD ATS for favorites at 33.8%. This means NHL favorites cover the -1.5 Puck Line less than 34% of the time over the long term.
• SHORT-TERM ATS COLLAPSE: The 1-day ATS for favorites sits at 17%. For every 10 games, favorites are only covering the spread 1.7 times. This is the definition of a "Dog Market."
• TOTALS (O/U): Recent 7-day data shows a 59.6% lean toward the Under. This correlates with the underdog success; lower-scoring games keep margins thin, allowing underdogs to stay within the spread or win late in the third period/OT.

COMPARING NBA VS. NHL MARKET SENTIMENT

The divergence between these two leagues offers a masterclass in sports betting analytics.

1. Market Efficiency: The NBA is currently "Predictable Bullish." The talent gap between the top 4 seeds and the lottery teams is being reflected in the 88.7% 3-day SU favorite win rate.
2. Parity Impact: The NHL is "Volatile Bearish." Hockey’s inherent variance (goalie performance, puck luck) is amplified in the SBI. When SU favorites are only winning 36.4% (7D), the MoneyLine value on underdogs becomes exponential.

APPLYING THE SBI TO YOUR HANDICAPPING

The SBI is not just a historical record; it is a forecasting tool. In the Raymond Report system, we look for "Market Reversion." If the NBA Favorites are SU at 88.7% over 3 days, the Law of Averages suggests a correction is imminent. No league stays at nearly 90% favorite wins for extended periods.

KEY INDICATORS TO WATCH:

• 80% CLUB: Watch for teams that contribute to these Bullish trends. When 21+ trends hit 80%, as seen in our AI Trend Reports, it validates the SBI heat map.
• STREAKS: NBA favorites on a 1D/3D Bullish run often face "trap" lines where the spread is inflated to over-adjust for the trend.
• DAYS REST: Situational context (e.g., NHL favorites on the second half of a back-to-back) often explains why the SBI dips into Bearish territory.

CONCLUSION: MONITOR THE INDEX

The SBI confirms that we are currently in a tale of two markets. The NBA is a safe haven for favorites and "Over" bettors in the immediate short term. Conversely, the NHL is a goldmine for underdog MoneyLine players and "Under" bettors.

For the most up-to-date daily shifts in the Sports Betting Index, visit ATS Stats. Whether you are looking for sports betting tips or deep-dive computer picks, the SBI should be the first chart you check before placing a wager.

Next Report Focus: The impact of the "Law of Averages" on NHL Puck Line regression and NBA spread inflation.

Disclaimer: Betting involves risk. All data provided by the Raymond Report SBI is for informational and analytical purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results.