Pre-season NFL games are a different beast compared to regular season matchups. For many, they represent a preview of what's to come, but for bettors, they pose unique challenges and opportunities. Here are the top five things to keep in mind when placing wagers on pre-season NFL games.
- Player Rotation and Playing Time
- Unlike the regular season, coaches use the pre-season to evaluate their roster. This means star players might see limited action or might not play at all. Before placing a bet, it's crucial to keep an eye on news and reports to see which players are expected to play and how long they'll be on the field.
- Coaching Objectives
- Coaches often enter pre-season games with specific objectives that don't necessarily prioritize winning. They may want to test a new offensive scheme, evaluate the depth of certain positions, or give rookie players more experience. Understand the goals of each team's coaching staff as these can greatly impact game outcomes.
- Team Depth
- With many starters sitting out or playing limited snaps, pre-season games often become a battle of backups. Some teams have stronger depth, especially at critical positions like quarterback. A team with a solid backup QB can have a significant advantage, especially in the second half of pre-season games when third and fourth-string players are on the field.
- Motivation Levels
- While the games might not count towards the regular season record, many players are fighting for a spot on the final roster. Rookies, undrafted free agents, and players on the bubble will play with a lot of motivation. Identifying which teams have more of these motivated players, or which specific games might serve as critical evaluations for such players, can offer betting opportunities.
- Avoid Overreacting to Previous Results
- It's easy to get caught up in the results of the last pre-season game. If a team lost by a wide margin, the general public might avoid backing them in their next outing. However, remember that the objectives of pre-season games are different. Just because a team looked poor in one game doesn't mean they will in the next, especially if different players or units are being highlighted.
Betting on pre-season football requires a different approach than the regular season. It's not always about picking the “better” team, but understanding the context and objectives of each matchup. With careful research and a keen understanding of the dynamics of the pre-season, you can find value and make informed bets.
