Welcome, NHL bettors! As we delve into the world of hockey betting, it's crucial to understand the dynamics of how favorites fare following their most recent games. Whether they're bouncing back from a loss or riding the wave of a recent victory, these patterns can offer valuable insights for your betting strategy.
Understanding the Trends: Favorites After a Loss
Bouncing Back Strong?
Teams that have just experienced a narrow loss (by 1-3 goals) show a notable trend in their next games. Interestingly, while their ability to win outright (SU) might be lower, they often excel against the spread (ATS). For example, favorites coming off a 1-goal loss have an impressive ATS record of 84-58-0. This suggests a resilience in keeping games close, even if they don't always clinch the win.
Over/Under Dynamics
Another interesting trend is in the over/under (O/U) betting. In the aftermath of a loss, especially a close one, these games tend to be high-scoring. This is seen in the O/U records, particularly after 1-3 goal losses, which lean heavily towards the ‘Over'.
The Scenario Post-Victory
Maintaining Momentum
Conversely, how do favorites perform after a win? The pattern shifts slightly here. Following a 1-goal win, the ATS record stands at 72-42-0, but the SU record shows they're less likely to win outright (43-71). This hints at a potential overvaluation of these teams by the market, making them less favorable in straight-up bets.
Tightening Defense?
Interestingly, the over/under outcomes following wins are not as consistently high-scoring as in the loss scenarios. This could indicate a more defensive approach or simply a regression to the mean in scoring.
Key Takeaways for Bettors
- ATS Advantage After a Loss: If a favorite has just lost, especially by a small margin, consider betting on them to cover the spread in their next game. They might not win, but they often keep it close.
- High-Scoring Games Post-Loss: Games following a favorite's loss, particularly a narrow one, are more likely to hit the ‘Over' on total points.
- SU Bets Require Caution: Straight-up bets on favorites, especially after a loss, are riskier. Their tendency to not win outright in these scenarios should temper expectations.
- Margin of Loss Matters: The previous game's margin can significantly influence the next game's outcome. Pay close attention to this detail when placing your bets.
- Mind the Sample Size: Be cautious with trends based on smaller sample sizes, such as outcomes following 4-5+ goal differences. While the trends are worth noting, they might not be as reliable.
Wrapping Up
In the dynamic world of NHL betting, understanding these nuances can give you a significant edge. Remember, betting isn't just about picking winners or losers; it's about finding value in the patterns and trends that others might overlook. Use this knowledge to refine your betting strategy and stay one step ahead in the exciting NHL betting landscape. Happy betting!
