NFL Week 4 Trends

Deciphering Week #4: Insights from Raymond Report’s 80% Club NFL Trends for 2023

Welcome to the NFL Week 4 preview! As the new season picks up steam, teams are starting to show their true colors, and with the help of the Raymond Report's 80% Club stats from ATS STATS, we'll dissect some crucial trends to watch for this week.

Dominance at Home

  • Dallas Cowboys:
  • The Cowboys appear nearly unbeatable as a -7.0 to -9.5 home favorite before a non-division game, boasting an impressive 17-1 SU since 1996. They also show a strong trend of 9-1 SU coming off a road loss as a favorite since '96. With such commanding stats, it's evident that the Cowboys hold their ground when playing under these conditions.
  • Green Bay Packers:
  • September seems to be the Packers' month when playing at home. They have a 15-1 SU record over the last ten years playing at home in September.
  • San Francisco 49ers:
  • The 49ers as a -10.0 or more home favorite after a 1 home stand have an enviable 13-1 SU record since 1996. They also continue to dominate with an 11-1 SU when coming off a home win as a favorite in the last decade.
  • Indianapolis Colts:
  • The Colts as a 0 to -3.0 home favorite coming off an American Conference opponent have a strong 11-1 SU record over the past seven years, and they mirror this trend after a conference game.

Chiefs & Bills – The Traveling Titans

  • Kansas City Chiefs:
  • When the Chiefs play away, especially before a non-division game, they are a force to reckon with, showing a 24-2 SU in the last five years. They also have an impressive 10-1 SU record when playing away before a non-conference game in the same period.
  • Buffalo Bills:
  • The Bills seem to thrive after consecutive ATS wins, boasting a 10-1 SU when played at home coming off back-to-back ATS wins in the last seven years.

High Scoring Affairs and Defensive Duels

  • Buccaneers:
  • Betting the over seems favorable when the Buccaneers are a 0 to 3 away underdog before a conference game in the last decade, with the Over being 10-1-0.
  • Broncos:
  • Conversely, the Under might be the play for the Broncos as an away team before a non-division game in the last two years, showing a 1-9-0 trend.
  • Giants:
  • The Giants have a pronounced Under trend at home recently, with the Under being 2-11-0 when coming off a loss in the last two years and similarly when coming off a National Conference opponent.

Quick Hits

  • New Orleans Saints:
  • The Saints have a strong comeback trend, with a 9-1 SU when played at home coming off a 1-point loss since '96.
  • Seattle Seahawks:
  • The Seahawks seem to thrive against the NFC East on the road, posting a 10-2 SU record over the past ten years.
  • Patriots:
  • October seems to favor the Patriots on the road, with a 13-2 SU record over the past seven years.

In the world of football, past performance is just one of many factors that can impact the outcome of a game. Always consider current team dynamics, injuries, and other relevant factors when placing bets. Enjoy the games and good luck!

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